Interactive Tool

    The Kilroy Curve Simulator

    Move the settings. Watch what happens when investors can't hold.

    THE HOLDING GAP(Negative Gearing Zone)-50%-25%Break Even+25%+50%PurchaseYear 3Year 5Year 7Year 10Year 15EXIT THRESHOLDThe Bridge(Tax Offsets, Depreciation)The Break(Rate Hikes, New Taxes)Success(Positive Asset)PurchaseTime (Years)Cash Flow (+/-)The Kilroy Curve

    HOLD achieved

    Break Rate

    Never

    Higher rates push the curve downward, making the holding gap deeper and longer.

    LowHigh

    6.5%

    Variable = immediate impact. Fixed = protection until expiry.

    Depreciation lifts the curve earlier, making the bridge reachable.

    Strong growth lifts the tail of the curve, but does not fix early-stage hold failure.

    SlowStrong

    2.1% p.a.

    Insurance, land tax, compliance - raises the floor of the holding gap.

    LowHigh

    50%

    What this shows

    The Kilroy Curve illustrates the holding phase of property investment. After purchase, cash flow typically deteriorates before it improves. This creates a holding gap - a period where costs exceed income and pressure accumulates.

    When depreciation is removed or reduced, the curve fails to recover before investors are forced to exit. When exits occur, rental supply is lost. Housing outcomes are shaped here, not at purchase.